Austin, Travis, Texas
- LAT
- 30.26715
- LON
- -97.74306
- ZONE
- America/Chicago
- COUNTY_FIPS
- 48453
0–100 DECISION INDEX, NOT EVENT PROBABILITY
EVIDENCE QUALITY 70.5/100
No audience or operational context supplied.
What this assessment says.
Elevated available evidence for extreme heat and heat index, severe thunderstorms, lightning.
1 intersecting official alert. Forecast guidance available for supported hazards.High historical or climate indices for extreme heat and heat index, severe thunderstorms, hail, lightning.
Historical and climate indices describe planning exposure, not current conditions.Evidence layers are available across the 19 monitored hazards.
1 registered source is unavailable. Not scored is different from zero.Active directives
Heat Advisory issued August 26 at 12:39PM CDT until August 27 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Austin/San Antonio TX
Williamson; Travis; Bastrop
OFFICIAL INSTRUCTION, VERBATIMDrink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.SOURCE: NWS Austin/San Antonio TX
Risk by hazard
Weights: active 40% · forecast 30% · history 20% · climate 10%
| Hazard | Assessment | Current and 14-day | Long-term evidence | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme heat and heat indexCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVE22.5/10014-DAY75/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE82.8/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 70.5/100 |
| LightningCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY55/100 | HISTORY97.8/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 80.5/100 |
| Severe thunderstormsCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY40/100 | HISTORY80.8/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 80.5/100 |
| HailHIGH LONG-TERM | 19.7/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY98.4/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Flash floodingHIGH LONG-TERM | 23.7/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY98/100CLIMATE41.4/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 62.0/100 |
| Extreme cold and wind chill | 3.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE17.2/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 70.5/100 |
| Ice storms and freezing rain | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 63.5/100 |
| Winter storms and heavy snow | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 63.5/100 |
| Wildfires | 7.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE70.7/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| River flooding | 17/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY64.3/100CLIMATE41.4/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 62.0/100 |
| Tornadoes | 12.8/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY64.1/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Drought | 5.9/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE58.6/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers | 10.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY30.2/100CLIMATE41.4/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 62.0/100 |
| Coastal flooding | 4.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE41.4/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Urban flooding | 4.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE41.4/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Blizzards | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Storm surge | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
Component evidence
Extreme heat and heat index
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 70.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 22.5/1001 intersecting official alert.
- FORECAST
- 75/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 82.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
59.8/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Lightning
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 80.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 55/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 97.8/1008 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 97.8. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
46.1/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Severe thunderstorms
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 80.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 40/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 80.8/10085 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 80.81. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Hail
19.7/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 98.4/100152 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 98.38. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Flash flooding
23.7/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 62.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 98/10077 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 98.01. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 41.4/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Extreme cold and wind chill
3.2/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 70.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 17.2/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
23.2/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Ice storms and freezing rain
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 63.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Winter storms and heavy snow
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 63.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfires
7.1/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 70.7/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
River flooding
17/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 62.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 64.3/1005 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 64.33. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 41.4/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Tornadoes
12.8/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 64.1/1005 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 64.09. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Drought
5.9/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 58.6/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers
10.2/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 62.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 30.2/1000 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 30.15. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 41.4/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Coastal flooding
4.1/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 41.4/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Urban flooding
4.1/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 41.4/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Blizzards
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Storm surge
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Recommendations.
- 01Monitor linked issuing agencies and compare source issue, validity, and expiration times before acting.
- 02Use the highest active or forecast hazard as the planning driver; do not average away a severe local threat.
- 03Prioritize preparedness for extreme heat and heat index, severe thunderstorms, lightning based on the currently confirmed score floor.
These recommendations never create, paraphrase, or override evacuation or shelter orders.
Sources
- AVAILABLE
Active alerts
NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:36:01.066Z
CAP-compatible active alerts intersecting the evaluated point.
https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active?point=30.26715,-97.74306 - UNAVAILABLE
14-day forecast
Open-Meteo using NOAA and other national weather models · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:36:01.066Z
The forecast cache does not yet contain usable 14-day data for this location.
https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=30.26715&longitude=-97.74306&daily=temperature_2m_max,temperature_2m_min,apparent_temperature_max,apparent_temperature_min,precipitation_sum,precipitation_probability_max,snowfall_sum,wind_gusts_10m_max,weather_code&temperature_unit=fahrenheit&wind_speed_unit=mph&precipitation_unit=inch&forecast_days=14&timezone=auto - AVAILABLE
NWS seven-day fallback forecast
NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:36:01.066Z
Official point forecast used as fallback for supported hazards during a missing or delayed 14-day model update. NWS does not provide a uniform 14-day product.
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/156,91/forecast - AVAILABLE
National Risk Index supplemental baseline
FEMA · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:36:01.066Z
County-level March 2023 relative risk. Displayed as context; not substituted for the requested rolling 10-year component.
https://services.arcgis.com/HdtZMT2FmI4wPzTM/ArcGIS/rest/services/FEMA_National_Risk_Index/FeatureServer/0/query?geometry=-97.74306%2C30.26715&geometryType=esriGeometryPoint&inSR=4326&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&outFields=STATE%2CCOUNTY%2CSTCOFIPS%2CNRI_VER%2CRISK_SCORE%2CRISK_RATNG%2CHWAV_RISKS%2CCWAV_RISKS%2CDRGT_RISKS%2CWFIR_RISKS%2CHRCN_RISKS%2CTRND_RISKS%2CHAIL_RISKS%2CLTNG_RISKS%2CRFLD_RISKS%2CWNTW_RISKS%2CISTM_RISKS&returnGeometry=false&f=json - AVAILABLE
2016–2025 county event history
NOAA / NCEI Storm Events · retrieved 2026-08-26T12:38:24Z
One NOAA Storm Events detail record; counts are reports, not unique storms. Seven hazards have complete county-coded coverage; unsupported hazard/geography combinations remain null.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/ - AVAILABLE
County temperature normal and series
NOAA / NCEI Climate at a Glance · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:36:01.066Z
1991–2020 normal compared with the latest complete rolling 10-year county series.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/TX-453/tavg/12/12/1991-2025.json?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020 - AVAILABLE
County precipitation normal and series
NOAA / NCEI Climate at a Glance · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:36:01.066Z
1991–2020 normal compared with the latest complete rolling 10-year county series.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/TX-453/pcp/12/12/1991-2025.json?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020
- The primary score is a confirmed 0–100 decision index, not an event probability. A technical worst-case bound remains available in component evidence when required data is missing, but it is not an expected range or forecast.
- Source outages and unsupported hazard layers are shown as unavailable or not scored. Missing evidence is never treated as zero.
- Days 8–14 use freely available model guidance. NOAA CPC outlooks do not provide deterministic location-level forecasts for every hazard.
- FEMA National Risk Index values use hazard-specific source windows and are supplemental. They are never labeled as the requested rolling 10-year history.
- Climate trend scores are county-level derived comparisons, not event forecasts. Tornado, hail, hurricane, surge, smoke, lightning-strike, blizzard, and ice-event projections remain unscored where no defensible source exists.
- Low or unscored risk does not mean safe. Follow current instructions from the issuing authority.