I3INSIT3
LOCATION ASSESSMENT / 09170
ASSESSMENT GENERATED 2026-08-26T18:37:45.472Z

South Central Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut

COUNTY SCOPE

Active alerts and forecasts are evaluated at the representative point shown below. Historical and climate evidence uses county-level data where available.

Representative point: South Central Connecticut Planning Region Census representative point, Connecticut

PARTIAL HISTORICAL COVERAGE

This current planning region does not have a directly comparable 2016–2025 NOAA county history record.

The official Census crosswalk maps member towns from New Haven County into this planning region. Old county totals are not reassigned because the source reports do not identify the within-county share reliably.

Current geography FIPS: 09170

U.S. Census Bureau Connecticut crosswalk ↗
LAT
41.29017
LON
-72.83702
ZONE
America/New_York
COUNTY_FIPS
09170
COMPOSITE CONFIRMED INDEX40/100MODERATE

0–100 DECISION INDEX, NOT EVENT PROBABILITY

EVIDENCE QUALITY 60.5/100

SUPPLIED CONTEXT / UNTRUSTED INPUT

No audience or operational context supplied.

EVIDENCE STATUS

Assessment incomplete.

The assessment continues with available evidence. Missing source data is not treated as zero and does not create a displayed risk range.

  • 2016–2025 county event history: This current Connecticut planning region is crosswalked to legacy counties for disclosure only. Legacy county history and climate values are not substituted into the current planning-region assessment.
PLAIN-LANGUAGE INTERPRETATION

What this assessment says.

01 / CURRENT AND 14-DAYModerate

Elevated available evidence for severe thunderstorms, lightning.

0 intersecting official alerts. Forecast guidance available for supported hazards.
02 / LONG-TERM EXPOSURENO HIGH SIGNAL

No historical or climate layer reaches the High band in the available evidence.

Historical and climate indices describe planning exposure, not current conditions.
03 / EVIDENCE COVERAGE29 OF 76

Evidence layers are available across the 19 monitored hazards.

1 registered source is unavailable. Not scored is different from zero.
HAZARD MATRIX / 19 CLASSES

Risk by hazard

Weights: active 40% · forecast 30% · history 20% · climate 10%

Scores are 0–100 decision indices, not probabilities. Rows are ordered by current or near-term signal, then high long-term exposure.
HazardAssessmentCurrent and 14-dayLong-term evidenceEvidence
LightningCURRENT / NEAR-TERM40/100ModerateACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY55/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Severe thunderstormsCURRENT / NEAR-TERM40/100ModerateACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY40/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers8.8/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY29.4/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Extreme heat and heat index7.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY25/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Blizzards1.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Extreme cold and wind chill1.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Flash flooding1.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Ice storms and freezing rain1.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Urban flooding1.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Winter storms and heavy snow1.5/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100
Coastal flooding0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Drought0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Hail0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Hurricanes and tropical storms0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
River flooding0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Storm surge0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Tornadoes0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
Wildfires0/100LowACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scoredHISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100
DETERMINISTIC RECORD

Component evidence

Lightning

40/100 · Moderate

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
55/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

46.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Severe thunderstorms

40/100 · Moderate

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
40/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

42/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers

8.8/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
29.4/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

38.8/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Extreme heat and heat index

7.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
25/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

37.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Blizzards

1.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Extreme cold and wind chill

1.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Flash flooding

1.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Ice storms and freezing rain

1.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Urban flooding

1.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Winter storms and heavy snow

1.5/100 · Low

2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Coastal flooding

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Drought

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Hail

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Hurricanes and tropical storms

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

River flooding

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Storm surge

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Tornadoes

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Wildfires

0/100 · Low

1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100

ACTIVE
0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
FORECAST
Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
HISTORY
Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
CLIMATE
Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound

80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.

Recommendations.

  1. 01Monitor linked issuing agencies and compare source issue, validity, and expiration times before acting.
  2. 02Use the highest active or forecast hazard as the planning driver; do not average away a severe local threat.
  3. 03Prioritize preparedness for severe thunderstorms, lightning based on the currently confirmed score floor.

These recommendations never create, paraphrase, or override evacuation or shelter orders.

PROVENANCE LEDGER

Sources

  1. AVAILABLE

    Active alerts

    NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:37:45.472Z

    CAP-compatible active alerts intersecting the evaluated point.

    https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active?point=41.290167,-72.837024
  2. AVAILABLE
  3. AVAILABLE
  4. UNAVAILABLE

    2016–2025 county event history

    NOAA / NCEI Storm Events · retrieved 2026-08-26T12:38:24Z

    This current Connecticut planning region is crosswalked to legacy counties for disclosure only. Legacy county history and climate values are not substituted into the current planning-region assessment.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
LIMITATIONS / REQUIRED READING
  • The primary score is a confirmed 0–100 decision index, not an event probability. A technical worst-case bound remains available in component evidence when required data is missing, but it is not an expected range or forecast.
  • Source outages and unsupported hazard layers are shown as unavailable or not scored. Missing evidence is never treated as zero.
  • Days 8–14 use freely available model guidance. NOAA CPC outlooks do not provide deterministic location-level forecasts for every hazard.
  • FEMA National Risk Index values use hazard-specific source windows and are supplemental. They are never labeled as the requested rolling 10-year history.
  • Climate trend scores are county-level derived comparisons, not event forecasts. Tornado, hail, hurricane, surge, smoke, lightning-strike, blizzard, and ice-event projections remain unscored where no defensible source exists.
  • Low or unscored risk does not mean safe. Follow current instructions from the issuing authority.
  • This current Connecticut planning region is crosswalked to legacy counties for disclosure only. Legacy county history and climate values are not substituted into the current planning-region assessment.