Washington, District of Columbia, United States
- LAT
- 38.89510
- LON
- -77.03638
- ZONE
- UNRESOLVED
- COUNTY_FIPS
- 11001
0–100 DECISION INDEX, NOT EVENT PROBABILITY
EVIDENCE QUALITY 63.5/100
No audience or operational context supplied.
What this assessment says.
Elevated available evidence for extreme heat and heat index, severe thunderstorms, lightning.
0 intersecting official alerts. Forecast guidance available for supported hazards.High historical or climate indices for severe thunderstorms, lightning, flash flooding, river flooding.
Historical and climate indices describe planning exposure, not current conditions.Evidence layers are available across the 19 monitored hazards.
1 registered source is unavailable. Not scored is different from zero.Risk by hazard
Weights: active 40% · forecast 30% · history 20% · climate 10%
| Hazard | Assessment | Current and 14-day | Long-term evidence | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LightningCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY55/100 | HISTORY92/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 80.5/100 |
| Extreme heat and heat indexCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY50/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 63.5/100 |
| Severe thunderstormsCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY40/100 | HISTORY93.5/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 80.5/100 |
| River floodingHIGH LONG-TERM | 19.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY97.6/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Flash floodingHIGH LONG-TERM | 19.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY96.2/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Extreme cold and wind chill | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 63.5/100 |
| Ice storms and freezing rain | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 63.5/100 |
| Winter storms and heavy snow | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 63.5/100 |
| Hail | 11.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY56.2/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Tornadoes | 11.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY56.2/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers | 6/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY30.2/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Blizzards | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Coastal flooding | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Drought | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Storm surge | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Urban flooding | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Wildfires | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
Component evidence
Lightning
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 80.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 55/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 92/1003 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 92.02. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
44.9/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Extreme heat and heat index
40/100 · Moderate2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 63.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 50/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
45/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Severe thunderstorms
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 80.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 40/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 93.5/100149 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 93.46. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
40.7/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
River flooding
19.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 97.6/10060 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 97.62. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Flash flooding
19.2/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 96.2/10055 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 96.24. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Extreme cold and wind chill
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 63.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Ice storms and freezing rain
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 63.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Winter storms and heavy snow
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 63.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the official NWS days 1–7 fallback forecast using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Hail
11.2/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 56.2/10019 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 56.22. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Tornadoes
11.2/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 56.2/1004 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 56.18. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers
6/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 30.2/1000 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 30.15. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Blizzards
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Coastal flooding
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Drought
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Storm surge
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Urban flooding
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfires
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Recommendations.
- 01Monitor linked issuing agencies and compare source issue, validity, and expiration times before acting.
- 02Use the highest active or forecast hazard as the planning driver; do not average away a severe local threat.
- 03Prioritize preparedness for extreme heat and heat index, severe thunderstorms, lightning based on the currently confirmed score floor.
These recommendations never create, paraphrase, or override evacuation or shelter orders.
Sources
- AVAILABLE
Active alerts
NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:37:24.635Z
CAP-compatible active alerts intersecting the evaluated point.
https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active?point=38.8950982,-77.0363849 - UNAVAILABLE
14-day forecast
Open-Meteo using NOAA and other national weather models · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:37:24.635Z
The forecast cache does not yet contain usable 14-day data for this location.
https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=38.8950982&longitude=-77.0363849&daily=temperature_2m_max,temperature_2m_min,apparent_temperature_max,apparent_temperature_min,precipitation_sum,precipitation_probability_max,snowfall_sum,wind_gusts_10m_max,weather_code&temperature_unit=fahrenheit&wind_speed_unit=mph&precipitation_unit=inch&forecast_days=14&timezone=auto - AVAILABLE
NWS seven-day fallback forecast
NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:37:24.635Z
Official point forecast used as fallback for supported hazards during a missing or delayed 14-day model update. NWS does not provide a uniform 14-day product.
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LWX/97,71/forecast - AVAILABLE
National Risk Index supplemental baseline
FEMA · retrieved 2026-08-26T18:37:24.635Z
County-level March 2023 relative risk. Displayed as context; not substituted for the requested rolling 10-year component.
https://services.arcgis.com/HdtZMT2FmI4wPzTM/ArcGIS/rest/services/FEMA_National_Risk_Index/FeatureServer/0/query?geometry=-77.0363849%2C38.8950982&geometryType=esriGeometryPoint&inSR=4326&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&outFields=STATE%2CCOUNTY%2CSTCOFIPS%2CNRI_VER%2CRISK_SCORE%2CRISK_RATNG%2CHWAV_RISKS%2CCWAV_RISKS%2CDRGT_RISKS%2CWFIR_RISKS%2CHRCN_RISKS%2CTRND_RISKS%2CHAIL_RISKS%2CLTNG_RISKS%2CRFLD_RISKS%2CWNTW_RISKS%2CISTM_RISKS&returnGeometry=false&f=json - AVAILABLE
2016–2025 county event history
NOAA / NCEI Storm Events · retrieved 2026-08-26T12:38:24Z
One NOAA Storm Events detail record; counts are reports, not unique storms. Seven hazards have complete county-coded coverage; unsupported hazard/geography combinations remain null.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
- The primary score is a confirmed 0–100 decision index, not an event probability. A technical worst-case bound remains available in component evidence when required data is missing, but it is not an expected range or forecast.
- Source outages and unsupported hazard layers are shown as unavailable or not scored. Missing evidence is never treated as zero.
- Days 8–14 use freely available model guidance. NOAA CPC outlooks do not provide deterministic location-level forecasts for every hazard.
- FEMA National Risk Index values use hazard-specific source windows and are supplemental. They are never labeled as the requested rolling 10-year history.
- Climate trend scores are county-level derived comparisons, not event forecasts. Tornado, hail, hurricane, surge, smoke, lightning-strike, blizzard, and ice-event projections remain unscored where no defensible source exists.
- Low or unscored risk does not mean safe. Follow current instructions from the issuing authority.